Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9752…20fe
world · 56 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$88 -50%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$84 · open +$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$228
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 40
Open positions75
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day861.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 75 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$84
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? No 73¢ 96¢ $21 $27 +$7 (+31%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 61¢ 88¢ $10 $14 +$5 (+46%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 96¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 81¢ 89¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 79¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 93¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 91¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 84¢ 74¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 89¢ 85¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 67¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+32%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 82¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 67¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-43%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 78¢ 96¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 68¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 73¢ 97¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 12 $0 $0 +69%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 12 $0 $0 +12%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 12 $0 $0 +10%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 12 $0 $0 -11%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $0 $0 -256%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -0%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -160%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -108%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 12 $5 −$6 -114%
Will Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -102%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -837%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Will "Habibti" - Drake debut week album sales be between 100k and 120k Jun 12 $1 −$1 -101%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -88%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $7 −$8 -102%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -126%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $1 −$2 -137%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $4 −$6 -139%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 -10%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 -6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $8 $0 -1%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $1 $0 -37%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $3 $0 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 09 $1 $0 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$2 +89%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% +$6
world 26% +$3
tech 8% $0
finance 8% $0
politics 4% +$2
economics 2% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 3m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3m
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $2 3m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 68¢ $0 3m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 68¢ $0 4m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 68¢ $0 4m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 68¢ $0 4m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 68¢ $0 4m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 68¢ $0 4m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 12m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 12m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 12m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 12m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 12m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -33.2% -39.6% 26% 13% -52.0%
≤30d 54 -33.2% -39.6% 26% 13% -52.0%
≤90d 54 -33.2% -39.6% 26% 13% -52.0%
all 54 -33.2% -39.6% 26% 13% -52.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover861.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.6% 13% -52.0%
10% ← realistic here -45.3% 7% -56.6%
15% -50.6% 7% -60.8%
20% -55.5% 7% -64.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.33 · official $222.19 · 3500 history records