Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:54:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9752…62be crypto 1432 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (286 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,923 (-20%) realized −$12,023 · open +$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate58%689W / 501L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day286.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,429now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% +$10,620
weather 26% +$797
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (286 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 968 -8.6% -17.3% 53% 34% -13.1%
≤30d 1190 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 38% -7.0%
≤90d 1190 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 38% -7.0%
all 1190 +5.1% -4.9% 58% 38% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover286.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 38% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 33% -15.9%
15% -22.3% 30% -24.0%
20% -29.9% 28% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,429
Realized−$12,023
Unrealized+$100
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses689 / 501
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1190 / 1432
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day286.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 1190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 97¢ 92¢ $97 $92 −$5 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 68¢ $2 $68 +$66 (+3307%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 38¢ 74¢ $23 $45 +$22 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 47¢ $1 $31 +$29 (+2240%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $23 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 464 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$48 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 7? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8? Jun 17 $176 −$176 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 4? Jun 17 $292 −$292 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 4? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7? Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $24 2m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $16 14m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 31m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $91 33m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $42 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $35 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 54m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $84 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $97 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $29 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,429.20 · official $1,426.12 (match) · 3500 history records