Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x975c…f8d7 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% $0
other 26% −$1
politics 25% $0
tech 5% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 22% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 9 +0.4% -9.1% 22% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -0.8% -10.2% 24% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage296d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 68¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 25 $9 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 25 $1 $0 -4%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 11 $11 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 02 $1 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 27 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 26 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 14h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $36 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $36 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $19 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $25 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $18 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 16d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $3 174d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.40 · official $32.64 (match) · 113 history records