Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:51:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x975d…b02d weather 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,457 (+5%) realized +$1,457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate98%43W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$627per market
Trades / day28.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$940
14 days+$1,369
30 days+$1,442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 17% -4.8%
≤30d 44 +4.7% -5.3% 98% 16% -4.8%
≤90d 44 +4.7% -5.3% 98% 16% -4.8%
all 44 +4.7% -5.3% 98% 16% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 16% -4.8%
10% -14.3% 2% -13.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.6% 0% -22.2%
20% -30.2% 0% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$858) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$0 · ×69856.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3003814.16 per $1 lost it wins $3003814.16
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses43 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage17d
Avg bet$627
Trades / day28.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $783 +$37 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $201 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,996 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $984 +$25 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $186 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $748 +$159 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $343 +$63 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $820 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1,904 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $332 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $574 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16? Jun 16 $751 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $432 +$84 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $530 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $375 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $353 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,623 +$107 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 13 $965 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $815 +$179 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $982 +$52 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $579 +$11 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $499 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $684 +$162 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $339 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $726 +$50 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $253 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,329 +$206 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $602 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $957 +$84 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,019 +$61 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $858 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $251 +$33 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2,786 +$27 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $83 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $612 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $208 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $113 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $96 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $114 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $113 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $140 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $139 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $187 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $62 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $116 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $100 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $108 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $487 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $59 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $16 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 491 history records