Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x975e…f875 sports 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,170 (-15%) realized −$2,143 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%104W / 84L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$1,344
14 days−$1,672
30 days−$1,630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$1,910
sports 38% +$146
politics 22% −$600
crypto 1% $0
world 0% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +45.9% +32.0% 44% 41% -35.5%
≤30d 75 +22.9% +11.2% 55% 52% -33.7%
≤90d 173 +8.9% -1.5% 55% 54% -27.1%
all 188 +7.1% -3.1% 55% 53% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 53% -25.9%
10% -12.3% 45% -33.0%
15% -20.8% 35% -39.4%
20% -28.6% 23% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$54 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,143
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses104 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 199
History coverage600d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 25¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 +$66 +65%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $49 +$95 +195%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $73 −$59 -81%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $140 +$25 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $920 −$230 -25%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $25 +$24 +96%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $79 +$17 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$11 -74%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $52 +$40 +77%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $346 −$344 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $12 −$4 -34%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $55 +$112 +203%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $199 +$71 +35%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $138 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $123 +$25 +20%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $169 −$98 -58%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 20 $173 −$4 -2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $115 −$113 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $188 +$60 +32%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $117 −$114 -97%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $16 −$2 -10%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $187 +$74 +40%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $256 +$72 +28%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $96 +$42 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $906 −$900 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $35 −$18 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $431 −$382 -89%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $31 +$15 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $55 +$13 +24%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 +$25 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $51 −$19 -37%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $40 −$12 -30%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 07 $30 +$17 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Tristan Boyer Jun 03 $10 +$3 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $7 −$7 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $40 −$40 -99%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $71 +$38 +53%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $68 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $44 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $55 1h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 65¢ $28 1h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 65¢ $6 1h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 65¢ $35 1h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 65¢ $35 1h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 65¢ $18 1h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 65¢ $18 1h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 65¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 33¢ $82 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 33¢ $82 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $66 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $42 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $4 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $28 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $690 2h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $37 2h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $7 2h
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $5 2h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 74¢ $50 2h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $73 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $920 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 33¢ $50 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 49¢ $46 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $105.05 · 515 history records