Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9761…9070 sports 389 markets active 3h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$571 (-2%) realized −$562 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate77%299W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$299
14 days−$517
30 days−$526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$445
other 13% −$89
crypto 4% −$102
politics 0% −$10
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.8% -13.0% 71% 26% -17.8%
≤30d 234 -2.2% -11.5% 85% 22% -11.4%
≤90d 365 -2.2% -11.5% 78% 29% -11.3%
all 387 -2.5% -11.8% 77% 30% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 30% -11.3%
10% -20.3% 10% -19.8%
15% -28.0% 5% -27.5%
20% -35.0% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$562
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses299 / 88
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions2
Markets (closed)387 / 389
History coverage318d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 +$6 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $150 +$9 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$10 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $33 +$4 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $146 −$15 -10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$3 -15%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $150 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $152 −$40 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $109 −$68 -62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$12 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$25 -25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $56 −$10 -18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $201 −$198 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $91 −$31 -34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$5 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-1.5) Jun 14 $150 +$2 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 +$2 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $60 +$6 +10%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $60 +$4 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 14 $130 +$1 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 +$5 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$14 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $300 +$15 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $77 −$21 -27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 Jun 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 11 $150 +$2 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $381 −$50 -13%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $151 +$26 +17%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$2 +17%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $50 +$4 +8%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $50 +$3 +7%
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $50 +$7 +13%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $35 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $50 25h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $150 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $33 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 73¢ $32 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $67 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 46h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $23 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $20 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $30 47h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 54¢ $81 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $27 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $150 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $38 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $47 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 35¢ $41 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $59 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 80¢ $88 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $76 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $45 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.56 · official $70.67 (match) · 896 history records