Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9762…73fb sports 441 markets active 8h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,033 (-1%) realized −$2,033 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate74%321W / 113L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$829per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$1,933est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$827
7 days+$2,161
14 days+$542
30 days−$1,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$5,568
other 15% +$4,853
world 1% −$124
crypto 0% −$191
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +37.5% +24.4% 93% 93% +22.4%
≤30d 114 +2.4% -7.3% 72% 63% -11.2%
≤90d 390 +0.2% -9.3% 72% 67% -10.6%
all 434 +1.2% -8.5% 74% 68% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 68% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 28% -18.1%
15% -25.2% 12% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$529 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,033
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses321 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,933
Open positions0
Markets (closed)434 / 441
History coverage102d
Avg bet$829
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 434 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. Unite Jun 26 $350 +$164 +47%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U Jun 26 $494 +$239 +48%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $398 +$96 +24%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0 Jun 25 $579 +$93 +16%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6. Jun 25 $344 +$235 +68%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $273 +$71 +26%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: C Jun 24 $406 −$132 -33%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will France win on 2026- Jun 23 $403 +$129 +32%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argent Jun 23 $404 +$218 +54%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06 Jun 22 $403 +$110 +27%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 22 $352 +$89 +25%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $416 +$162 +39%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $505 +$246 +49%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay Jun 20 $254 +$273 +108%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: Unit Jun 20 $536 +$169 +32%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $687 +$167 +24%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Czechia Jun 19 $442 +$237 +54%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Eng Jun 18 $273 +$173 +63%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $947 −$164 -17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 17 $367 +$581 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $589 −$223 -38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $328 −$323 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $492 −$488 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $461 −$456 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $440 −$439 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $854 −$850 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $503 +$146 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $152 +$100 +66%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $453 −$450 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $854 +$137 +16%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $503 +$100 +20%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $804 +$137 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $403 +$152 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $831 +$145 +18%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $403 −$400 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $503 +$99 +20%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $604 +$156 +26%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $702 +$75 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5 Jun 11 $603 +$89 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $703 +$110 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $452 +$77 +17%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $447 +$130 +29%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $836 +$63 +8%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $352 +$87 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $601 +$147 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $954 +$176 +18%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $788 +$167 +21%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $666 +$122 +18%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $614 +$52 +8%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $470 +$143 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. Unite BUY 67¢ $350 7h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U BUY 67¢ $494 10h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $494 12h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $398 19h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Jap BUY 53¢ $274 24h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 0 BUY 86¢ $579 32h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6. BUY 59¢ $344 46h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $273 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: C SELL 42¢ $274 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: C BUY 60¢ $406 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portug BUY 61¢ $253 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: P BUY 77¢ $453 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will France win on 2026- BUY 75¢ $403 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Austria: Argent BUY 64¢ $404 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $442 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 79¢ $352 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06 BUY 78¢ $403 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croa BUY 2¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 31¢ $51 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 71¢ $416 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivo BUY 21¢ $51 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY 67¢ $505 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: Unit BUY 75¢ $536 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay BUY 47¢ $254 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $687 7d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Czechia BUY 64¢ $442 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Eng BUY 61¢ $273 8d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners AND Portugal vs. DR Congo BUY 55¢ $507 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 64¢ $783 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $947 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 955 history records