Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
97 0x9763…3d0e sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$536 (+8%) realized +$614 · open −$78
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$516
14 days−$401
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$434
world 7% +$3
crypto 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.2% -52.2% 50% 0% -40.9%
≤30d 5 -9.3% -17.9% 80% 40% -19.1%
≤90d 13 -5.4% -14.4% 62% 38% +4.4%
all 29 -5.8% -14.7% 55% 45% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 45% -3.4%
10% -22.9% 34% -12.7%
15% -30.4% 31% -21.1%
20% -37.2% 28% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$185 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$614
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage179d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Antoine Ghibaudo 25¢ 10¢ $125 $48 −$78 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 18 $573 −$568 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 18 $920 +$52 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 11 $539 +$115 +21%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 06 $447 +$43 +10%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 31 $351 +$60 +17%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $347 +$74 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 03 $130 −$129 -100%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $368 −$360 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $629 +$2,043 +325%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 23 $494 +$3 +1%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 23 $70 +$20 +29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 29 $236 −$236 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics Mar 25 $290 −$290 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 18 $368 −$368 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 18 $315 +$135 +43%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 14 $76 +$60 +79%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs Mar 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Galorys (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: South Ameri Mar 07 $77 −$2 -2%
Hawks vs. Bucks Mar 07 $67 +$73 +108%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 27 $50 +$28 +56%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $61 +$59 +96%
Knicks vs. 76ers Feb 15 $60 +$53 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 16? Feb 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Thunder vs. Grizzlies Feb 11 $30 +$18 +59%
Rams vs. Seahawks Feb 11 $50 +$38 +75%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 05 $60 −$60 -100%
Spurs vs. Hornets Jan 31 $49 −$49 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Antoine Ghibaudo 25¢ $128 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $573 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 94¢ $47 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 94¢ $47 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 94¢ $11 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 94¢ $19 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 94¢ $229 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 93¢ $79 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 93¢ $46 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 93¢ $46 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $114 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $133 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $32 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $43 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $43 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $46 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $46 9d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 93¢ $109 9d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 82¢ $539 14d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 91¢ $447 21d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 85¢ $26 36d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 85¢ $17 36d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 85¢ $5 36d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 85¢ $303 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $347 41d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 86¢ $130 49d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 29¢ $7 56d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 29¢ $7 56d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 30¢ $353 56d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Lakers 23¢ $14 59d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.50 · official $47.50 (match) · 72 history records