Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9764…a691 other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$233 (+4%) realized +$261 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%21W / 76L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$183
14 days+$226
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$41
other 28% +$163
politics 14% +$25
tech 12% −$6
economics 6% −$11
sports 6% −$6
culture 2% −$8
finance 1% −$3
weather 1% −$5
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -14.7% -22.8% 19% 19% +7.9%
≤30d 46 +6.0% -4.1% 17% 15% +2.6%
≤90d 91 -3.1% -12.3% 18% 8% -6.5%
all 97 -1.8% -11.2% 22% 9% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -5.7%
10% -19.7% 8% -14.7%
15% -27.4% 7% -22.9%
20% -34.5% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$5 · ×5.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized+$261
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses21 / 76
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)97 / 102
History coverage157d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $333 $330 −$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $192 $189 −$3 (-2%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $48 $39 −$9 (-19%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $10 $2 −$8 (-76%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $219 +$271 +124%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $150 −$147 -98%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $14 −$2 -17%
2026 Balance of Power: Other Jun 20 $10 −$3 -34%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 20 $24 −$6 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $320 +$160 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 −$77 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Jun 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -36%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $8 −$3 -43%
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? Jun 20 $29 −$1 -5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $21 −$4 -19%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $21 +$3 +14%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $39 −$1 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -4%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 16 $21 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $6 +$25 +420%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $6 +$23 +385%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 05 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $8 $0 -4%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $5 $0 -2%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $30 −$1 -3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 05 $11 −$2 -14%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 05 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 03 $4 $0 -8%
Will Tim Alexander be the Democratic nominee for NJ-02? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 02 $10 −$1 -9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 02 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? Jun 01 $34 −$3 -9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in June? Jun 01 $54 −$1 -3%
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32 −$5 -15%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 28 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 28 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 28 $17 −$1 -9%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $196 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $338 1h
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $150 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $219 5d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $8 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $11 6d
2026 Balance of Power: Other SELL Yes $7 6d
New pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $18 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $320 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? SELL No 53¢ $22 6d
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? SELL Yes 59¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 53¢ $23 6d
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? SELL No $4 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 43¢ $8 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? BUY No 15¢ $8 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY Yes 46¢ $9 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? SELL No 52¢ $10 6d
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%? BUY No 53¢ $11 6d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $10 6d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $17 6d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 6d
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 SELL Yes 39¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $559.74 · official $559.74 (match) · 410 history records