Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9766…a667 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$16
politics 41% −$17
sports 6% −$46
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 107 -3.1% -12.3% 4% 3% -9.7%
all 128 -4.3% -13.4% 9% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 8% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 6% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 4% -26.3%
20% -36.2% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$2 · ×6.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage117d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $317 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $284 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $38 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 09 $24 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $209 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $303 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $294 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $183 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $547 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $271 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $769 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $221 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $240 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $198 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $253 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $192 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $212 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $387 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $207 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $410 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $280 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 44h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 4d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 4d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 9d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 13d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 15d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $39 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $27 16d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $27 17d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.94 · official $77.94 (match) · 391 history records