Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9766…ed40 crypto 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,339 (-23%) realized −$11,339 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%55W / 52L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$463per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$271
14 days+$420
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$8,316
other 19% −$22
politics 6% −$2,940
economics 5% −$7
world 2% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +77.0% +60.2% 100% 100% +51.3%
≤30d 11 +78.3% +61.3% 100% 100% +56.7%
≤90d 11 +78.3% +61.3% 100% 100% +56.7%
all 107 -19.5% -27.1% 51% 37% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 37% -30.3%
10% -34.1% 28% -37.0%
15% -40.5% 18% -43.1%
20% -46.3% 13% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$297 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,339
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses55 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage599d
Avg bet$463
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $52 +$18 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $46 +$64 +141%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 28? Jun 24 $51 +$7 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 27? Jun 24 $103 +$28 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? Jun 24 $47 +$22 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $32 +$22 +70%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 24? Jun 23 $32 +$38 +119%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $32 +$70 +221%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $74 +$46 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $97 +$103 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 05 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 05 $5 +$10 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 05 $110 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 05 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 05 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 05 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 05 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Mar 05 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 05 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 05 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 05 $35 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 05 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 05 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 09 $100 +$154 +154%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9? Feb 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 07 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 03 $187 −$187 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $942 +$58 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 3? Jan 30 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? Jan 30 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? Jan 30 $144 −$144 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 1? Jan 28 $632 −$632 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Jan 28 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $56 +$32 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $880 +$221 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $2,059 +$141 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 31? Jan 28 $136 −$136 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 59¢ $70 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 41¢ $52 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 28? SELL No 78¢ $58 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 81¢ $131 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? SELL Yes 45¢ $69 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $51 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 61¢ $103 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 44¢ $54 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 24? SELL Yes 54¢ $69 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 68¢ $102 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 20¢ $32 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $61 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $12 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $97 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records