Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9767…1a16 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +104% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$235est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$236
other 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+84.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +104.1% +84.6% 38% 31% -7.4%
≤30d 29 +104.1% +84.6% 38% 31% -7.4%
≤90d 29 +104.1% +84.6% 38% 31% -7.4%
all 29 +104.1% +84.6% 38% 31% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +84.6% 31% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here +67.0% 31% -16.3%
15% +50.8% 21% -24.4%
20% +36.1% 21% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +104% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +223% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$87 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$235
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $198 −$13 -7%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $304 +$80 +26%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $120 +$160 +133%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $45 −$9 -20%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $421 −$143 -34%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $116 −$86 -74%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $222 −$129 -58%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $233 −$11 -5%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $142 +$113 +79%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 17 $329 −$85 -26%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $113 +$293 +261%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 17 $1,073 −$340 -32%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $313 −$223 -71%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $1,100 +$38 +3%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $183 −$31 -17%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $449 +$23 +5%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $56 −$20 -36%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $529 −$41 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 +$5 +4%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $521 −$252 -48%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $229 −$37 -16%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $111 −$30 -27%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $257 +$89 +34%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $204 +$317 +156%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $452 +$155 +34%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $218 +$64 +29%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $254 −$36 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky 21¢ $3 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky 20¢ $72 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 29¢ $112 1h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky 31¢ $110 2h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 23¢ $86 2h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 57¢ $69 6h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 51¢ $40 6h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 51¢ $225 6h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 44¢ $236 6h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $236 10h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 29¢ $34 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 51¢ $35 11h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 57¢ $45 11h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 22¢ $44 11h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 25¢ $86 11h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 21¢ $86 11h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 46¢ $193 11h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Adrian Mannarino 36¢ $192 11h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $229 12h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 20¢ $27 14h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs $26 14h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 22¢ $89 15h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Stefano Travaglia 25¢ $89 15h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 59¢ $222 15h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi SELL Benjamin Bonzi 52¢ $222 16h
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Benjamin Bonzi 53¢ $233 20h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 99¢ $58 21h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 75¢ $197 22h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $121 22h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $22 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records