Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9769…8caa world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$2
other 21% −$1
politics 4% +$1
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -3.9% -13.1% 49% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 3% -9.6%
10% -21.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -29.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage457d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $33 $32 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $47 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 $0 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Dec 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Dec 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on June 17? Jun 16 $6 $0 +3%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Starmer out before July? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 12 $0 $0 -6%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $11 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? Apr 17 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $46 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $46 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $46 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $46 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.80 · official $31.80 (match) · 121 history records