Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x976a…e8ec sports 1120 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$14,846 (+30%) realized +$2,943 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%511W / 595L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day150.4pace
Fees−$637est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,558now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$738
7 days+$1,777
14 days+$2,513
30 days+$2,943
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$2,242
other 11% +$505
crypto 2% +$213
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 500 +9.3% -1.1% 43% 41% -3.7%
≤30d 1106 +12.7% +1.9% 46% 45% -4.1%
≤90d 1106 +12.7% +1.9% 46% 45% -4.1%
all 1106 +12.7% +1.9% 46% 45% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover150.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 45% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 40% -13.3%
15% -16.7% 33% -21.7%
20% -24.9% 28% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,558
Realized+$2,943
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses511 / 595
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$637
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1106 / 1120
History coverage17d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day150.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 97¢ $712 $826 +$114 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 26¢ 100¢ $67 $261 +$194 (+289%)
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Belinda Bencic Belinda Bencic 51¢ 50¢ $251 $247 −$5 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 87¢ 100¢ $94 $108 +$14 (+15%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 29¢ 85¢ $15 $45 +$30 (+193%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 65¢ 85¢ $26 $35 +$8 (+31%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 36¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 32¢ 27¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 83¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Los Angeles Angels 28¢ 15¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 14¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 54¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 7¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Under 3¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+325%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Cincinnati Reds 69¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 5¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1900%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Under 39¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+156%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Under 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Under 48¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+108%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 63¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Maddison Inglis 7¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 21¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $97 +$20 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $116 +$145 +125%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $82 +$48 +59%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $73 +$55 +75%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $74 +$19 +25%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $15 +$4 +27%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 −$2 -27%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$48 +325%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $22 +$5 +21%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) Jun 14 $26 +$5 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $27 −$2 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $21 +$28 +129%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $56 +$67 +119%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 +$6 +165%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $7 +$19 +250%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Jun 14 $46 +$57 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $60 −$59 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $12 $0 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $71 −$42 -59%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $28 +$8 +30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $572 −$232 -40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $126 +$106 +84%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $6 +$14 +223%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $725 +$254 +35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $359 +$250 +70%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $384 +$253 +66%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $176 −$173 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $222 −$218 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $3 +$2 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 65¢ $27 15m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 28¢ $5 15m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 87¢ $95 46m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 26¢ $69 46m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $23 46m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 16¢ $4 52m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 29¢ $16 52m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 26¢ $1 1h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 30¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $90 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $28 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $47 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $92 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 79¢ $74 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $24 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $56 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 63¢ $73 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 82¢ $22 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 49¢ $60 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 23¢ $15 2h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 40¢ $14 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 54¢ $1 2h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 37¢ $4 2h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $56 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,558.04 · official $1,557.02 (match) · 3500 history records