Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:51:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x976b…9d0c world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$3
politics 16% −$1
other 16% +$1
sports 9% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.9% -8.7% 60% 20% -8.2%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 7% -8.8%
all 44 +0.8% -8.8% 39% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.2%
10% -17.5% 2% -17.9%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage268d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $85 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $44 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $16 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $8 $0 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $2 +$1 +29%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in October? Oct 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 07 $80 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in September? Sep 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 26 $13 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $31 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $47 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $47 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $18 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $19 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $46 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $45 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $36 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 90¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records