Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x976c…b629 crypto 260 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%132W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$320
14 days−$338
30 days−$317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$401
crypto 22% −$162
other 18% −$401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 32% -18.3%
≤30d 94 -15.5% -23.5% 44% 34% -15.4%
≤90d 259 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 43% -11.6%
all 259 -4.6% -13.7% 51% 43% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 43% -11.6%
10% -22.0% 36% -20.0%
15% -29.5% 30% -27.7%
20% -36.4% 26% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses132 / 127
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage82d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$6 -19%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +88%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 +$56 +679%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $165 −$165 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $316 −$178 -56%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -43%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $566 +$58 +10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $48 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $297 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $221 +$82 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$92 +89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $276 −$140 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $251 −$231 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $503 +$4 +1%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $353 +$104 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$24 -48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $213 +$39 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $36 −$6 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 26m
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 27m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $11 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $25 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 96¢ $64 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 7¢ $3 3d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $7 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 17¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $624 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $75 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 94¢ $401 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 86¢ $80 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.65 (match) · 660 history records