Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:59:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
97 0x976f…662f other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate32%17W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$26
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$22
world 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +121.3% +100.3% 17% 17% -8.8%
≤30d 15 +41.8% +28.3% 7% 7% -9.8%
≤90d 53 +9.6% -0.8% 32% 8% -9.6%
all 53 +9.6% -0.8% 32% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 8% -9.6%
10% -10.3% 6% -18.2%
15% -19.0% 2% -26.1%
20% -26.9% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses17 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage88d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $440 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $269 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $139 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $280 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $297 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $142 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $142 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $311 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $321 $0 -0%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $165 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $168 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $168 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $168 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $146 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Suns May 01 $5 +$1 +23%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $13 +$3 +23%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $147 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $147 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $135 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 26 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $135 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $25 +$4 +14%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $24 +$1 +5%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 11 $23 +$1 +6%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $22 +$1 +5%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $19 +$2 +10%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $18 +$1 +4%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $134 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $125 21h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 21h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $127 21h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $127 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $127 2d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $127 4d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $126 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $126 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $127 8d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $127 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $139 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $139 11d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $139 11d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $139 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $139 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $139 16d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $139 16d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $139 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $139 19d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $139 22d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $141 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $141 23d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $142 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.50 · official $142.50 (match) · 180 history records