Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9772…a7e0 other 406 markets active 1h ago coverage 247d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$237 (-3%) realized −$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate31%127W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$142
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$288
world 25% +$177
politics 9% −$177
crypto 6% +$1
finance 1% +$1
sports 1% −$7
tech 0% +$7
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.8% -4.3% 40% 20% -12.5%
≤30d 69 -20.8% -28.3% 32% 13% -14.8%
≤90d 176 -10.9% -19.4% 31% 16% -13.8%
all 405 -15.9% -23.9% 31% 22% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 22% -12.5%
10% -31.2% 19% -20.9%
15% -37.8% 16% -28.6%
20% -43.9% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses127 / 278
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)405 / 406
History coverage247d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $90 −$3 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $53 −$10 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $143 +$4 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$3 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $12 +$12 +99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $24 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $64 −$12 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $29 −$3 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $167 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $153 −$64 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $39 +$4 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $24 −$1 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $58 +$27 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $54 −$18 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $110 −$37 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $41 +$2 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $98 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $22 +$7 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $31 −$20 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $202 −$9 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $4 −$3 -81%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$2 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $46 +$15 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 45m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 45m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 56m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $27 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $25 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $25 28h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 44h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 44h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 45h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 45h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $18 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $76 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $51 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.68 · official $21.68 (match) · 1583 history records