Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9772…3c18 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$112 (+5%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days+$245
14 days+$149
30 days+$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$48
sports 33% +$207
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 67% +2.6%
≤30d 16 -9.5% -18.1% 62% 62% -3.8%
≤90d 16 -9.5% -18.1% 62% 62% -3.8%
all 16 -9.5% -18.1% 62% 62% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 62% -3.8%
10% -25.9% 62% -13.0%
15% -33.1% 44% -21.4%
20% -39.6% 19% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$101 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage8d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $201 +$50 +25%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $114 +$36 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $272 +$118 +44%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $106 −$105 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre Jun 20 $222 +$61 +27%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $181 +$72 +40%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 20 $106 −$106 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $202 +$72 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $114 +$70 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $79 +$45 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 −$31 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $169 +$140 +83%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 −$250 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 80¢ $201 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $110 28h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $4 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $272 4d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 37¢ $19 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 37¢ $53 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 70¢ $106 5d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $32 5d
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Levan Chokheli 78¢ $222 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $23 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $43 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $8 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 5d
Türkiye to win the second half? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $102 5d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $79 5d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $114 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $79 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $169 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $252 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.00 · official $250.00 (match) · 39 history records