Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9773…32fd other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$112 (+13%) realized +$111 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$95
14 days+$92
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$41
crypto 4% +$21
sports 1% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +24.2% +12.4% 75% 75% +4.6%
≤30d 18 +4.5% -5.4% 56% 56% +1.2%
≤90d 18 +4.5% -5.4% 56% 56% +1.2%
all 18 +4.5% -5.4% 56% 56% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 56% +1.2%
10% -14.5% 44% -8.5%
15% -22.7% 44% -17.3%
20% -30.3% 28% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$16 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)18 / 26
History coverage17d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 74¢ 80¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 +$13 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $122 +$68 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $98 +$39 +39%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 +$8 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $19 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $45 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 56¢ $45 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 10d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 10d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.75 · official $193.03 (match) · 55 history records