Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9775…b70d weather 970 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$398 (-6%) realized −$393 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%409W / 553L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$163
14 days−$300
30 days−$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$453
other 2% −$24
sports 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 -16.5% -24.5% 33% 31% -22.4%
≤30d 687 -10.4% -18.9% 35% 30% -20.6%
≤90d 962 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 29% -15.5%
all 962 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 29% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 29% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 23% -23.6%
15% -32.1% 20% -31.0%
20% -38.8% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$393
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses409 / 553
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)962 / 970
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 962 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 26? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? Yes 25¢ 21¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 26? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 26? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 +$6 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C or higher on June 24? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $16 −$12 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$6 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$8 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? Jun 24 $2 +$6 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +46%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $6 −$2 -34%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $9 −$5 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $29 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 40°C on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 25? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 25? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.42 · official $15.42 (match) · 2710 history records