Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
97 0x9778…5699 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%36W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$6
crypto 15% +$2
politics 3% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 49 -0.1% -9.6% 73% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses36 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage550d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $71 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 01 $32 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5,312 −$5 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 13 $39 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $36 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 by February 28 2025? Mar 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4250 by February 28 2025? Mar 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by January 31? Feb 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Bundesliga? Jan 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 26 $9 −$1 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $7 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $85 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $31 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 63d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 92d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $59 93d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 121d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $56 122d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $71 151d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 183d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 183d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $38 183d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $61 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 241d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 242d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $53 243d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $24 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $53 273d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $17 302d
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? BUY No 100¢ $61 303d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $55 335d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $32 367d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 396d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 100¢ $5,307 424d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 100¢ $5,312 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.22 · official $90.22 (match) · 103 history records