Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x977b…1966 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+10%) realized +$45 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$23
crypto 47% +$48
sports 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +5.9% -4.2% 65% 55% +6.3%
≤30d 20 +5.9% -4.2% 65% 55% +6.3%
≤90d 20 +5.9% -4.2% 65% 55% +6.3%
all 20 +5.9% -4.2% 65% 55% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 55% +6.3%
10% -13.3% 45% -3.9%
15% -21.7% 40% -13.1%
20% -29.4% 30% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$16 +293%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $80 +$10 +12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $27 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 43h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.44 · official $99.44 (match) · 46 history records