Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
97 0x977e…132a other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$340per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 70% −$13
politics 17% −$11
other 10% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% +$9
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 42 +5.7% -4.3% 24% 14% -9.3%
all 55 +3.9% -6.0% 22% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 11% -9.6%
10% -15.0% 11% -18.3%
15% -23.2% 11% -26.2%
20% -30.7% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)55 / 57
History coverage616d
Avg bet$340
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 99¢ 98¢ $61 $60 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $208 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $93 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $90 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $100 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $6 +$5 +72%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $9 +$7 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $10 +$9 +86%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $9 +$6 +59%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 +$8 +105%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $15 +$7 +47%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $25 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 02 $51 $0 +0%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 05 $96 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $13,608 −$13 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $18 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $28 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 14d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 21d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $15 21d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 21d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 22d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 24d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $15 28d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $19 30d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $19 30d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $14 30d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $95 31d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $95 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $89 39d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $89 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.62 · official $88.62 (match) · 305 history records