Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x977f…0981 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$29 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$41
other 5% −$9
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.9% -52.9% 50% 0% -12.5%
≤30d 2 -47.9% -52.9% 50% 0% -12.5%
≤90d 2 -47.9% -52.9% 50% 0% -12.5%
all 2 -47.9% -52.9% 50% 0% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.9% 0% -12.5%
10% -57.4% 0% -20.9%
15% -61.5% 0% -28.5%
20% -65.3% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$39 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $140 $137 −$2 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $123 $120 −$3 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $118 $115 −$3 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $105 $98 −$8 (-7%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $24 $22 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $40 −$39 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $746 +$13 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 10¢ $32 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $126 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $120 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 5h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $143 6h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 9h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 11h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $107 11h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 11h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 98¢ $746 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.57 · official $540.57 (match) · 19 history records