Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

97 0x9785…be17 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$465 · open −$449

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip

Net edge-6%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$297per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-6.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+3.4%	-6.4%	100%	0%	-6.4%
≤30d	1	+3.4%	-6.4%	100%	0%	-6.4%
≤90d	1	+3.4%	-6.4%	100%	0%	-6.4%
all	1	+3.4%	-6.4%	100%	0%	-6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.4%	0%	-6.4%
10%	-15.4%	0%	-15.4%
15%	-23.6%	0%	-23.6%
20%	-31.1%	0%	-31.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$15 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$465

Unrealized−$449

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 3

History coverage63d

Avg bet$297

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	83¢	0¢	$315	$0	−$315 (-100%)
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao?	Yes	79¢	0¢	$134	$0	−$134 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Jun 21	$440	+$15	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	83¢	$67	1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao?	BUY Yes	79¢	$37	1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao?	BUY Yes	79¢	$64	1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao?	BUY Yes	79¢	$8	1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao?	BUY Yes	79¢	$21	1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	83¢	$250	1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao?	BUY Yes	79¢	$4	1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	SELL No	99¢	$455	1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	BUY No	95¢	$440	63d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.28 (match) · 9 history records