Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9785…2419 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$825 (-68%) realized −$876 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$99
30 days−$849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$795
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$106 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$876
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)8 / 18
History coverage15d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 90¢ $108 $182 +$73 (+68%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $48 $116 +$67 (+140%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $29 $16 −$13 (-44%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-18%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 12¢ $49 $12 −$37 (-76%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $19 $5 −$14 (-75%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $500 −$489 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $150 −$145 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 −$77 -97%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $111 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $78 12d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $500 14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $150 14d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $80 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 15d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 15d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 15d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 15d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.90 · official $376.90 (match) · 34 history records