Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9786…1e9a sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$158 (-5%) realized −$140 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%23W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$365
sports 37% +$145
crypto 11% −$234
world 2% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -23.6% -30.9% 34% 33% -24.3%
≤30d 67 -23.6% -30.9% 34% 33% -24.3%
≤90d 67 -23.6% -30.9% 34% 33% -24.3%
all 67 -23.6% -30.9% 34% 33% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.9% 33% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.5% 28% -31.6%
15% -43.5% 28% -38.2%
20% -49.1% 24% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$33 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses23 / 44
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage6d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 30¢ $54 $36 −$18 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$42 +137%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $58 −$53 -92%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 +$121 +99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$56 +139%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $15 −$13 -82%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$47 +119%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -92%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$37 +180%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$25 +82%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $26 −$15 -58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$19 +18%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $31 −$20 -65%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$65 +213%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 −$61 -85%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$7 -32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$31 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$74 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$83 +148%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$31 -47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $108 +$95 +88%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 −$88 -58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $110 −$47 -42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $222 −$179 -81%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $132 −$10 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $119 −$118 -99%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $80 −$15 -19%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $144 +$81 +56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $134 −$107 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $109 +$15 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $55 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $58 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $243 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 9¢ $10 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $97 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $40 9h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 0¢ $10 12h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 12h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 0¢ $3 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 1¢ $5 15h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 2¢ $10 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 23h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $40 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $61 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $57 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $20 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 1¢ $5 29h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $55 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.20 · official $37.43 · 165 history records