Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
97 0x9789…5bf3 other 37 markets active 10d ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+3%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$4
other 28% −$1
politics 14% +$11
crypto 7% $0
tech 4% +$4
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 11% -7.9%
≤90d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 11% -7.9%
all 37 +56.6% +41.7% 46% 8% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.7% 8% -7.6%
10% +28.1% 8% -16.4%
15% +15.8% 8% -24.5%
20% +4.4% 5% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +110% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.52 per $1 lost it wins $4.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage383d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $36 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $37 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 $0 -13%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $9 +$10 +116%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Fed rate cut by June meeting? Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +280%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Collin Morikawa win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Evo Morales win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 04 $2 $0 -11%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 02 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 10d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $43 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 70¢ $23 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $22 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 12d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $38 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $36 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $6 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $37 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $33 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $4 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $23 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $15 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $1 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 13d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $1 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $14 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $2 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $13 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $5 14d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $15 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $5 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records