Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x978a…f5b3 crypto 1449 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$373 (-4%) realized −$370 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%704W / 744L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$343
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -15.7% -23.8% 44% 44% -33.6%
≤30d 18 -15.7% -23.8% 44% 44% -33.6%
≤90d 1448 -3.5% -12.6% 49% 49% -13.0%
all 1448 -3.5% -12.6% 49% 49% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 49% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 49% -21.3%
15% -28.6% 49% -28.9%
20% -35.6% 48% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$370
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses704 / 744
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1448 / 1449
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1448 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 53¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 13 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 13 $4 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 13 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 13 $5 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 13 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 13 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 13 $5 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.72 · official $1.76 (match) · 3500 history records