Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x978a…b426 other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$44 (-0%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$11
politics 32% −$8
sports 13% −$25
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 120 -4.0% -13.2% 11% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 9% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 6% -18.4%
15% -29.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×5.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 107
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage134d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $362 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $191 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $182 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $350 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $185 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $373 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $166 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $158 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $136 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $155 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $343 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $303 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $303 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $153 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $344 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $487 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $464 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $177 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $187 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 17 $320 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $372 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $170 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $148 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $198 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $199 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $348 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $138 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 16d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 29d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $189 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $189 31d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $182 35d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $182 36d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $165 39d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $165 48d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $160 48d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $160 49d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $170 49d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $170 49d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $180 49d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $180 49d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $194 50d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $194 52d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $174 52d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $174 52d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 52d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 53d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $145 53d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $145 54d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $173 54d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $173 54d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $166 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 336 history records