Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:34:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
97 0x978d…c0a2 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$104 (+14%) realized +$108 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$134
14 days+$134
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$83
other 42% +$21
crypto 4% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +20.6% +9.1% 50% 50% +13.1%
≤30d 22 +20.6% +9.1% 50% 50% +13.1%
≤90d 22 +20.6% +9.1% 50% 50% +13.1%
all 22 +20.6% +9.1% 50% 50% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 50% +13.1%
10% -1.4% 50% +2.3%
15% -10.9% 50% -7.6%
20% -19.6% 50% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$23 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized+$108
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage38d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $88 $85 −$3 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 +$111 +363%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$23 +226%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$16 -80%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$19 +62%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$39 +152%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$20 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$26 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $23 +$37 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 10¢ $10 24h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $20 26h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $20 35h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 37h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 30¢ $10 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 46h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $36 46h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 46h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria $4 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 46h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $20 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $30 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $30 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $25 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.98 · official $203.98 (match) · 87 history records