Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x978e…c0ef other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate14%16W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$14
politics 25% −$9
sports 13% +$57
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 76 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 114 +0.7% -8.9% 14% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -9.4%
10% -17.6% 4% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses16 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage132d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $426 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 25 $189 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $267 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $254 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $228 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $445 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $281 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $238 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 10 $249 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $234 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $383 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,104 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $220 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $463 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $636 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $446 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $206 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $239 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $355 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $215 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 04 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 03 $277 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $706 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 7h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 24h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 24h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 31h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 6d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 8d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 10d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 23d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $189 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $189 26d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 26d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 27d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $254 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $254 29d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $228 29d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $228 30d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $238 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 342 history records