Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x978f…e14d sports 1137 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$592 (-5%) realized −$563 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate59%668W / 465L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day84.7pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$144
14 days+$28
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$339
other 6% −$68
world 0% −$11
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 360 +4.0% -5.9% 59% 58% -6.6%
≤30d 1007 -1.2% -10.6% 60% 59% -11.9%
≤90d 1133 -1.6% -11.0% 59% 58% -12.6%
all 1133 -1.6% -11.0% 59% 58% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 58% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 45% -21.0%
15% -27.3% 30% -28.6%
20% -34.4% 20% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$563
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses668 / 465
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1133 / 1137
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day84.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Yi Zhou 76¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 71¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Maks Kasnikowski 84¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Conor Gannon 33¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 83¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Carlo Alberto Caniato 56¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Karen Khachanov 68¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Grou Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Cagliari: Matteo Berrettini vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Shymkent 2: Edas Butvilas vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ostrava: Marco Cecchinato vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $15 +$10 +66%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 +$19 +89%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$7 -67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$30 +241%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $23 +$77 +334%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $12 +$13 +107%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$5 -42%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $60 −$3 -4%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 +$33 +140%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $10 +$12 +121%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$9 +62%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $15 +$13 +89%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $15 −$2 -14%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$14 -54%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $5 +$3 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 33¢ $5 9m
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 84¢ $5 11m
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 71¢ $5 15m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 61¢ $5 15m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Max Hans Rehberg 83¢ $5 45m
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 59¢ $5 48m
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 76¢ $5 54m
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 76¢ $5 54m
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys SELL Eva Lys 99¢ $7 58m
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 48¢ $5 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 51¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 68¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 68¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 69¢ $5 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $12 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $6 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Daniel Galan 99¢ $7 1h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Michael Zhu 24¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire SELL Michele Ribecai 99¢ $7 1h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 77¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 82¢ $5 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 40¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 68¢ $2 1h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 54¢ $5 1h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 68¢ $3 1h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 70¢ $5 1h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 42¢ $5 2h
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti BUY Noemi Basiletti 76¢ $5 2h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 81¢ $5 2h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 88¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.52 · official $52.13 · 3500 history records