Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9792…b9c3 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$104 (-0%) realized −$103 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$16
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$29
politics 25% −$32
sports 20% −$39
crypto 9% −$10
economics 7% −$5
world 6% −$7
culture 3% +$2
tech 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 61 -0.7% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 114 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -10.1%
all 144 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage108d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 97¢ 96¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 19 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $164 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $91 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $47 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $152 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $253 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $109 −$2 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $216 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 10 $46 −$1 -3%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $357 +$4 +1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 09 $20 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $346 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 07 $47 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 06 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $90 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 04 $57 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 04 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $43 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $249 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $53 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $54 6h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $56 7h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $56 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $63 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $64 21h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 21h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 28h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 32h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 33h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 40h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $49 40h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $50 46h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $41 47h
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $42 2d
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 2d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Ivory Coast reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $48 3d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $52 3d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $53 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 98¢ $48 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.60 · official $48.60 (match) · 571 history records