Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

97
0x9792…3ee7
sports · 24 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
+$904 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$903 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$179
Realized+$903
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage148d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$7
14 days−$12
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $174 $174 −$0 (-0%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Under 45¢ 45¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 34¢ 44¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+29%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Washington Nationals 62¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Under 65¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Washington Nationals 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Over 27¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Under 29¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 50¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-12.5) Pacers 51¢ $1,387 $0 −$1,387 (-100%)
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 66¢ $858 $0 −$858 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Under 73¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 62¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +113%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $18 −$10 -55%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 08 $2 +$7 +400%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$4 +100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 +$6 +203%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $12 +$5 +40%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) Jun 08 $19 +$7 +36%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 28 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 May 25 $17 −$17 -99%
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 Jan 18 $683 +$657 +96%
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 Jan 18 $2,982 +$2,540 +85%
Spread: Pistons (-12.5) Jan 17 $1,387 −$1,387 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 17 $858 −$858 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% +$902
politics 3% $0
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 45¢ $3 9h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 33h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 65¢ $15 5d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 23¢ $2 7d
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 33¢ $3 8d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 20¢ $2 9d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 26¢ $2 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 11d
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 62¢ $15 12d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 28¢ $2 14d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 72¢ $16 14d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 71¢ $12 15d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 17¢ $1 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 62¢ $14 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 18d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 19d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 73¢ $17 20d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 73¢ $19 24d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $174 25d
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 BUY Under 54¢ $218 148d
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2,764 148d
Pacers vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5 BUY Under 51¢ $683 148d
Spread: Pistons (-12.5) BUY Pacers 51¢ $1,387 148d
Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 66¢ $858 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +70.7% +54.5% 67% 67% -1.6%
≤30d 17 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 35% -41.8%
≤90d 17 -9.6% -18.2% 35% 35% -41.8%
all 21 -8.7% -17.4% 38% 38% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 38% +4.0%
10% -25.3% 38% -6.0%
15% -32.5% 38% -15.0%
20% -39.1% 29% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.99 · official $178.99 (match) · 60 history records