Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9793…789c economics 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy economics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17,853 (-87%) realized −$17,366 · open −$487
Gross ROI / mkt -88% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,278per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$293
14 days−$293
30 days−$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$13,671
other 20% −$3,690
sports 3% −$505
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-89.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -99.9% -99.9% 0% 0% -99.8%
all 14 -88.0% -89.1% 7% 7% -91.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -89.1% 7% -91.7%
10% -90.2% 0% -92.5%
15% -91.1% 0% -93.2%
20% -92.0% 0% -93.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -102% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -88% · $-wt -91% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$1,352 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized−$17,366
Unrealized−$487
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,278
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $830 $440 −$390 (-47%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes $118 $21 −$97 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $299 −$293 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $1,783 −$1,671 -94%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $795 −$789 -99%
First Round Pool C: Chinese Taipei vs. Japan Mar 18 $212 −$212 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $2,948 −$2,732 -93%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 17 $612 −$612 -100%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $182 −$182 -100%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $3,209 −$3,209 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $4,186 −$4,186 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $1,085 +$196 +18%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February? Feb 28 $900 −$454 -50%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Feb 28 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 28 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of February? Feb 28 $1,276 −$1,276 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $33 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $157 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $105 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $105 2h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 25¢ $299 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $15 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $294 27d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $75 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $210 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $210 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $105 48d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $100 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $100 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $100 49d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $40 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $40 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $50 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $300 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $500 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $70 61d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $50 61d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $400 61d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY Yes $100 61d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes $101 89d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL Yes $101 89d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes $214 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL Yes $214 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes $195 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes $101 90d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes $112 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $461.02 · official $461.02 (match) · 135 history records