Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9794…416d sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$139 (-11%) realized −$137 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$90
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$143
other 6% +$9
world 3% −$13
tech 3% $0
politics 3% $0
culture 1% +$1
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -55.3% -59.6% 33% 33% -40.8%
≤90d 14 -13.3% -21.5% 71% 43% -21.5%
all 20 -14.0% -22.2% 75% 30% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 30% -21.3%
10% -29.7% 30% -28.8%
15% -36.5% 10% -35.7%
20% -42.7% 0% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$70 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage178d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 72¢ 71¢ $136 $134 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 16 $91 −$90 -99%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 08 $147 +$50 +34%
Centurion 2: Luca Castelnuovo vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Jun 01 $64 −$64 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $109 +$55 +50%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $158 −$154 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $161 +$44 +27%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 12 $16 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 12 $18 $0 +3%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 12 $31 +$9 +29%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 12 $61 +$23 +38%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $80 +$22 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $26 −$26 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31? Feb 03 $26 +$1 +4%
Trump out as President in 2025? Jan 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $137 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $91 10d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 74¢ $15 18d
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 74¢ $132 18d
Centurion 2: Luca Castelnuovo vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez BUY Luca Castelnuovo 64¢ $64 25d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 66¢ $109 32d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Vici Gaming 30¢ $158 37d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $161 45d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $80 51d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 72¢ $61 59d
Cavaliers vs. Raptors BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $26 62d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $31 72d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $16 99d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 100¢ $14 107d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $18 113d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $18 121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 94¢ $14 137d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 145d
Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 145d
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31? BUY No 96¢ $26 155d
Will BNB reach $1300 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 165d
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $23 167d
Trump out as President in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $13 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.74 · official $133.74 (match) · 38 history records