Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9796…8718 sports 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,368 (-13%) realized −$1,366 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%33W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$194est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days−$156
14 days−$156
30 days−$1,479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,423
other 3% −$105
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.7% -1.7% 43% 43% -8.6%
≤30d 57 -12.2% -20.5% 33% 32% -29.0%
≤90d 111 -13.2% -21.5% 30% 29% -22.4%
all 111 -13.2% -21.5% 30% 29% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 29% -22.4%
10% -29.0% 28% -29.8%
15% -35.9% 27% -36.6%
20% -42.2% 25% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$70 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$1,366
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses33 / 78
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage33d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Michael Zheng 46¢ 46¢ $191 $189 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jun 29 $300 −$296 -99%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $192 +$228 +118%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 29 $600 −$196 -33%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $99 +$103 +105%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 28 $100 −$98 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 28 $124 −$122 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sa Jun 28 $95 +$226 +237%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $221 −$218 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $83 +$138 +165%
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov Jun 03 $26 +$58 +223%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $97 −$94 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $146 −$143 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $123 +$120 +97%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 03 $52 +$72 +138%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $6 −$6 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $213 −$207 -97%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 01 $55 +$1 +1%
Birmingham: Tristan Schoolkate vs Arthur Fery Jun 01 $65 −$4 -6%
Birmingham: James Duckworth vs Billy Harris Jun 01 $102 −$6 -6%
Prostejov: Tristan Boyer vs Filip Jianu Jun 01 $397 −$391 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $91 −$89 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $152 +$183 +120%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 01 $92 −$90 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien Jun 01 $77 −$77 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik Jun 01 $379 −$199 -53%
Roland Garros ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jaime Faria Jun 01 $153 −$153 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $121 −$121 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi Jun 01 $303 −$303 -100%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Aidan Mayo Jun 01 $152 −$152 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio Jun 01 $258 −$207 -80%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Yulia Putintseva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $199 +$129 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $101 +$136 +135%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury May 31 $110 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner May 31 $89 −$88 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 31 $198 +$200 +101%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $34 −$33 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $102 +$231 +226%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $102 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $63 +$142 +226%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $79 −$78 -98%
Kosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch May 31 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $87 −$87 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $129 +$125 +97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $102 +$114 +112%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 30 $18 −$10 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 46¢ $194 3m
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 59¢ $300 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 100¢ $420 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 45¢ $192 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar SELL Camilo Ugo Carabelli 26¢ $192 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Camilo Ugo Carabelli 50¢ $330 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Camilo Ugo Carabelli 32¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Camilo Ugo Carabelli 40¢ $67 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar SELL Daniel Merida Aguilar 66¢ $399 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Daniel Merida Aguilar 32¢ $201 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 100¢ $202 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 48¢ $99 15h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Emilio Nava 41¢ $100 15h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $124 16h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sa BUY 29¢ $95 18h
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 39¢ $51 24d
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint BUY Katarzyna Kawa 46¢ $221 25d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $83 25d
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov SELL Timofey Skatov 99¢ $84 25d
Perugia: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Timofey Skatov BUY Timofey Skatov 30¢ $26 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 10¢ $97 25d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 32¢ $146 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 100¢ $243 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 50¢ $123 26d
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Elias Ymer 99¢ $124 26d
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Elias Ymer 41¢ $52 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 20¢ $6 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo SELL Alejandro Tabilo 1¢ $6 27d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 35¢ $213 28d
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic SELL Aleksandar Vukic 46¢ $56 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.73 · official $188.73 (match) · 233 history records