Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
97 0x9797…2532 weather 733 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2709 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$740 (+1400%) realized +$733 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +177% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +114% what you keep after slip
Net edge+114%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%273W / 203L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$0per market
Trades / day2709.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% +$38
crypto 28% +$3
other 18% +$8
tech 1% +$4
politics 1% +$1
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2709 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+150.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 476 +177.2% +150.8% 57% 53% +92.6%
≤30d 476 +177.2% +150.8% 57% 53% +92.6%
≤90d 476 +177.2% +150.8% 57% 53% +92.6%
all 476 +177.2% +150.8% 57% 53% +92.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2709.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +150.8% 53% +92.6%
10% ← realistic here +126.8% 53% +74.1%
15% +104.9% 52% +57.3%
20% +84.8% 51% +41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +118% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +177% · $-wt +118% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +190% → late +165% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×5.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.98 per $1 lost it wins $12.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$733
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses273 / 203
Open positions321
Markets (closed)476 / 733
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$0
Trades / day2709.0
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 321 History 476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1250%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1450%)
Will "Supergirl" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? No 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+900%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+950%)
Will Hannah Spencer win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2650%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+850%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+400%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+350%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+250%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2248%)
Will John Fleming drop out? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+400%)
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+250%)
Will "adinross" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+250%)
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+250%)
Will "westcol" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+250%)
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+250%)
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+350%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 26? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 29°C or below on June 27? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C or below on June 28? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump dance on June 25, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 +598%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 26 Jun 26 $0 $0 +250%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 +300%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Jun 26 $0 $0 +105%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +547%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +400%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +300%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +1740%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +600%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +6360%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +900%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +140%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June Jun 26 $0 $0 +300%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 26 $0 $0 +600%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or below on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 27? Jun 26 $0 $0 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +200%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +300%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +700%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +47%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +114%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 26 $0 $0 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +700%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +235%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 +438%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 26 $0 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 26 Jun 26 $0 $0 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +289%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 26 $0 $0 +300%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will Donald Trump dance on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7m
Will Donald Trump dance on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 0¢ $0 9m
Will Bitcoin dip to $53,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on June 26 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 21m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 23m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 26? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 27m
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 29m
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.50 · official $19.68 (match) · 3500 history records