Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x9797…c193 sports 576 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 129d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,515 (-3%) realized −$8,513 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate32%181W / 383L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$471per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$1,534est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$282
14 days−$388
30 days−$1,903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$2,582
world 32% −$825
other 16% −$2,697
politics 13% −$343
finance 2% −$240
crypto 1% −$253
culture 1% −$63
tech 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -8.5% -17.2% 27% 10% -10.2%
≤30d 143 -11.4% -19.9% 38% 8% -11.2%
≤90d 460 -7.4% -16.3% 27% 7% -11.6%
all 564 -7.4% -16.2% 32% 6% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 6% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 4% -20.3%
15% -31.5% 3% -28.0%
20% -38.2% 2% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$28 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$1,680
Realized−$8,513
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses181 / 383
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$1,534
Open positions12
Markets (closed)564 / 576
History coverage130d ⚠
Avg bet$471
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $993 $993 −$0 (-0%)
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $320 $285 −$35 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $77 $81 +$4 (+5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $54 $80 +$26 (+47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $34 $54 +$19 (+56%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $62 $48 −$13 (-22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $49 $40 −$9 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $26 $31 +$4 (+16%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Down 5¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $20 +$3 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $168 −$3 -2%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $24 +$5 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $2,429 −$9 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $265 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $132 +$2 +1%
Will Safepoint not IPO before August 2026? Jun 14 $749 −$10 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $4,794 −$72 -2%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $285 +$11 +4%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$2 -2%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $474 −$4 -1%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $412 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: KZ (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 13 $248 +$2 +1%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $577 −$8 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $347 +$3 +1%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $92 +$1 +1%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $163 −$4 -3%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$2 -12%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $1,902 +$30 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $494 −$10 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2,880 −$20 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1,905 −$30 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $150 −$30 -20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Diogo Dalot be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +14%
Rainbow Six Siege: Leviatán Esports vs Four Angry Men - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$13 -60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $69 +$31 +45%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $403 −$30 -8%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $271 −$2 -1%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $68 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gr Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $1,867 +$23 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2,928 −$11 -0%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $39 −$2 -6%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $32 −$13 -42%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $66 $0 -1%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $349 $0 -0%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $930 +$9 +1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $450 −$100 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 10 $356 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $8,879 +$36 +0%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $37 −$3 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 7¢ $0 1m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Cloud Rising 9¢ $18 22m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Cloud Rising 9¢ $5 23m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Cloud Rising 8¢ $20 24m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $9 26m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $3 27m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $12 27m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $3 27m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $12 27m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 5¢ $1 28m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 6¢ $9 32m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 5¢ $40 33m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 1¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 2¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 66¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 66¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 66¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 66¢ $19 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 66¢ $33 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 66¢ $61 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 66¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 67¢ $168 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,680.39 · official $1,680.49 (match) · 3500 history records