Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x9798…79b9 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%24W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$162
14 days+$162
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$96
other 18% +$7
sports 17% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +9.5% -0.9% 77% 77% +18.8%
≤30d 13 +9.5% -0.9% 77% 77% +18.8%
≤90d 13 +9.5% -0.9% 77% 77% +18.8%
all 35 -7.3% -16.2% 69% 40% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 40% -8.9%
10% -24.2% 29% -17.6%
15% -31.5% 23% -25.6%
20% -38.2% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$28 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses24 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage133d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 23¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 +$24 +24%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$5 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $7 +$3 +46%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close Jun 21 $19 +$3 +15%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$35 +86%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $83 +$42 +51%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $70 +$8 +11%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 +$28 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Mar 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Feb 24 $90 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 24 $90 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 24 $52 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 23 $45 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 23 $45 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 23 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 23 $100 +$36 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 23 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 23 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 23 $117 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 23 $42 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 23 $114 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 23 $115 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 23 $106 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 23 $45 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 23 $47 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 09 $49 +$25 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $125 41m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close SELL Phantom 100¢ $22 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 86¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 87¢ $9 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 12h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 12h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 14h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 14h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 16h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $83 35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 90¢ $70 37h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $59 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $95 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $95 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $90 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.77 · official $74.77 (match) · 85 history records