Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x979b…de74 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%42W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$5
crypto 14% +$1
other 7% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 56 +0.1% -9.4% 75% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses42 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage536d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $93 $93 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 04 $67 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $73 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? Mar 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Feb 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? Jan 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 02 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 16 $73 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 11 $55 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? Mar 21 $5,278 −$5 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 04 $13 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ja Morant lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 23 $11 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Feb 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 19 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $21 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $67 63d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 92d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $73 92d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $14 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $71 122d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $12 151d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 151d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $47 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $35 181d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in December? BUY No 100¢ $37 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $68 212d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $26 243d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $42 243d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $43 273d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 302d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $65 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $51 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 365d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 394d
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 395d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 396d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 100¢ $13 424d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? BUY No 100¢ $15 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.57 · official $92.57 (match) · 118 history records