Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x979e…f65c crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (246 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$902 (+9%) realized +$1,056 · open −$154
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%24W / 33L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day246.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (246 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +4.2% -5.7% 42% 40% +4.5%
≤30d 57 +4.2% -5.7% 42% 40% +4.5%
≤90d 57 +4.2% -5.7% 42% 40% +4.5%
all 57 +4.2% -5.7% 42% 40% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover246.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 40% +4.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 39% -5.5%
15% -23.0% 32% -14.7%
20% -30.5% 25% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$90 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized+$1,056
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage2d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day246.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 26¢ 20¢ $619 $465 −$154 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $1,394 −$1,214 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $1,897 −$382 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 29 $1,052 +$1,025 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $488 +$1,182 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $143 −$137 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $187 −$178 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $545 +$130 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $634 +$148 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $199 −$188 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $83 +$73 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $189 +$76 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$30 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $178 −$173 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 29 $79 −$76 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 28 $195 −$187 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $165 +$412 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $246 +$569 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $252 +$355 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 28 $76 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $64 +$30 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$82 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $23 −$13 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $20 −$11 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $49 −$46 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $56 −$54 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $32 +$45 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $45 +$54 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$14 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $88 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $44 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $44 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $47 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $94 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $33 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $54 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $72 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $95 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $19 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.32 · official $751.67 · 592 history records