Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97a3…a3fa sports 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$890 (+3%) realized +$869 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%104W / 60L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$252
14 days−$31
30 days+$757
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$852
other 14% −$22
crypto 3% −$31
weather 1% −$31
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 41% -6.0%
≤30d 117 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 50% -6.9%
≤90d 117 -1.3% -10.7% 62% 50% -6.9%
all 164 +1.1% -8.6% 63% 50% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 50% -7.0%
10% -17.3% 34% -15.9%
15% -25.3% 23% -24.0%
20% -32.6% 11% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$42 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$869
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses104 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions6
Markets (closed)164 / 170
History coverage103d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $110 $134 +$24 (+22%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 91¢ 89¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$28 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 +$38 +367%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$25 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$11 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -61%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 17 $516 −$4 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? Jun 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$27 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$20 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 −$17 -51%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$12 -46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$16 -91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$18 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 15 $57 −$3 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$42 -42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$22 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $525 +$12 +2%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $602 +$93 +16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$14 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$37 -58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $80 +$15 +18%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $201 +$29 +15%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $241 +$28 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $300 +$15 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$11 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $161 −$96 -60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $410 +$19 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $47 −$7 -15%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $291 +$109 +37%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $101 +$28 +27%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $107 +$36 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$12 -12%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$26 -54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $200 +$4 +2%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $300 −$32 -10%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $700 +$11 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 12m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 13m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 92¢ $40 19m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 26h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $126 26h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 27h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 27h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 94¢ $512 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $33 42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $60 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.12 · official $274.12 (match) · 438 history records