Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:08:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97a5…14db world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$2
politics 13% +$2
other 12% $0
sports 11% +$2
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 6 -16.8% -24.7% 17% 0% -10.3%
all 26 -6.0% -15.0% 54% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 4% -8.6%
10% -23.1% 0% -17.3%
15% -30.6% 0% -25.3%
20% -37.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage483d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $37 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $25 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $6 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $11 $0 +4%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 23 $14 $0 -2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Mar 21 $13 +$1 +6%
SC State vs. MD Eastern Shore Mar 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 26 $2 $0 -6%
Northwestern State vs. SE Louisiana Feb 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Monica Barbaro win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 SAG Award Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Feb 24 $9 $0 +2%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Evan Mobley win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Feb 23 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Feb 21 $12 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $43 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $31 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $36 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $37 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $24 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $25 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 24d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $21 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $15 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $15 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $2 26d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 170d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 170d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 170d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2 170d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $3 170d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $1 170d
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $3 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.77 · official $42.77 (match) · 77 history records