Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:37:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

97 0x97a6…6ef8 world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$25 (+16%) realized +$50 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip

Net edge+21%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+20.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+261.0%	+226.6%	100%	100%	+226.6%
≤30d	5	+33.4%	+20.7%	60%	60%	+68.6%
≤90d	5	+33.4%	+20.7%	60%	60%	+68.6%
all	5	+33.4%	+20.7%	60%	60%	+68.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+20.7%	60%	+68.6%
10%	+9.1%	60%	+52.4%
15%	-1.4%	40%	+37.7%
20%	-11.1%	40%	+24.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 93% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +86% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +33% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$5 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.96 per $1 lost it wins $5.96

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage

Net worth$74

Realized+$50

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage35d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	7¢	7¢	$50	$56	+$6 (+13%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$15	$10	−$5 (-32%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	4¢	1¢	$34	$8	−$27 (-78%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Jun 20	$20	+$52	+261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 05	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 04	$5	+$4	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 04	$5	−$5	-100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Jun 04	$25	+$7	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	7¢	$30	1h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	1¢	$10	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	6¢	$20	1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	BUY No	28¢	$20	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$5	16d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$5	16d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	46¢	$24	35d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	BUY No	79¢	$25	35d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.20 · official $74.20 (match) · 17 history records