Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97a8…13a5 sports 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+1%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%122W / 119L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$211
14 days+$251
30 days+$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$419
crypto 6% −$157
other 5% −$139
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -2.5% -11.8% 44% 39% -16.3%
≤30d 206 +9.3% -1.1% 50% 46% -3.9%
≤90d 241 +6.8% -3.4% 51% 46% -7.2%
all 241 +6.8% -3.4% 51% 46% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 46% -7.2%
10% -12.6% 38% -16.1%
15% -21.1% 30% -24.2%
20% -28.8% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses122 / 119
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 261
History coverage76d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $11 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $28 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $9 +$4 +39%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 20 $17 −$17 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $8 +$13 +165%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$13 -87%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $8 +$2 +29%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 +$10 +109%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 $0 -8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$3 +20%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$24 +237%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $3 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 $0 +15%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $12 −$10 -79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -89%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $6 +$7 +112%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $25 −$15 -58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$3 -10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 $0 -5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 $0 -8%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $34 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $40 −$30 -73%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $11 −$10 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $20 +$3 +17%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $15 +$13 +82%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $19 +$5 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 −$9 -85%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$12 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -7%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 12m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: S BUY 10¢ $5 14m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 61¢ $20 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $15 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 73¢ $11 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $21 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $15 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 28¢ $6 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND W BUY $5 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY $5 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY $5 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $13 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $13 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $5 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 71¢ $9 25h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $25 38h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 100¢ $22 38h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 91¢ $20 39h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 69¢ $17 39h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $25 39h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 59¢ $15 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $22 41h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $8 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $2 42h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $15 43h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $11 43h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $19 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $8 44h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.56 · official $9.56 · 539 history records