Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
97 0x97a9…d771 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-7%) realized −$14 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$51
world 18% −$20
other 18% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.6% -6.2% 36% 36% -4.0%
≤30d 14 +3.6% -6.2% 36% 36% -4.0%
≤90d 14 +3.6% -6.2% 36% 36% -4.0%
all 14 +3.6% -6.2% 36% 36% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 36% -4.0%
10% -15.2% 36% -13.2%
15% -23.4% 36% -21.6%
20% -30.9% 36% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$12 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$34 +84%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $28 −$19 -68%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $8 +$21 +256%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$23 +91%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$9 +149%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$33 +163%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $24 −$23 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 33m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $2 34m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 38m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 46m
Spread: England (-3.5) SELL England $0 1h
Spread: England (-3.5) BUY England 10¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $15 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $2 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 2d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $29 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 54¢ $3 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $49 2d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 2d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $6 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $54 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $15 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $15 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $16 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $9 3d
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $15 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $24 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $25 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $1.14 · 35 history records