Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
97 0x97a9…4a31 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$81 (+2%) realized +$92 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$682now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$11
crypto 6% +$185
sports 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 54% -5.1%
≤30d 13 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 54% -5.1%
≤90d 13 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 54% -5.1%
all 13 -0.8% -10.2% 54% 54% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 54% -5.1%
10% -18.8% 54% -14.2%
15% -26.7% 54% -22.5%
20% -33.9% 46% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$188 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$682
Realized+$92
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $593 $589 −$4 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,001 −$726 -73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,000 +$476 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$185 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 28¢ $102 33m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $599 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $204 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $274 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $799 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 19h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,476 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,000 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $438 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $253 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $682.02 · official $682.02 (match) · 26 history records